Chapter 5
Looking Forward to 2040
Considering Liverpool’s health challenges and the change needed
In July 2023 Liverpool City Council passed a motion expressing concern over
“the significant health inequalities faced by residents across the city often marked by deprivation”(Liverpool City Council Meeting of City Council – July 2023 on Tackling Health Inequalities).
The findings of the report make stark reading, unless changes are made, by 2040 the city’s residents are facing:
Spending more than a quarter of their lives (26.1%) in ill health, with people living in the most deprived areas likely to live even longer in ill health
A fall in women’s life expectancy by one year and a fall in women’s healthy life expectancy by four years
Double the number of adults experiencing depression
An increase of up to 38,000 more people living with major illness, defined as at least two long-term conditions such as high blood pressure, cancer, diabetes, asthma, and chronic kidney disease
The health issues most common in children will be related to mental health, obesity, and child poverty
Health 2040 is a call for action to address health inequalities; focusing local partners on evidence-based tools and interventions. There is an ask for national government action to enable scale and pace of change. This includes a focus on wider determinants of ill health and the stark inequalities across the city.
To deliver the objectives set out in the Health 2040 report we will build on the existing national and international frameworks to promote and protect the health of our city and residents. With Liverpool having a relatively young population it is more important than ever that our focus begins at the very start of life.
Figure 7: Number of years lived in good health and mortality by sex 2021-2023
Years of life expectancy at birth, Liverpool – what good health looks like in 2021-2023
Summary:
- Fig 7: Liverpool residents face living in poor health well before reaching retirement age. Latest ONS data for 2021 to 2023 shows women can expect to live 56.1 years in good health, significantly lower than the national average of 61.9 years in England, and spend around 23.6 years, or 29.6% of their lives in poor health. For men, the figure is similarly concerning, with an expected 55.7 years of good health, compared to 61.5 years in England. This translates to 20.2 years, or 26.6% of their lives, spent in poor health (Figure 7)
Figure 8: Number of years lived in good health and mortality by sex in 2040
Years of life expectancy at birth, Liverpool – what good health looks like in 2040
Summary:
- Fig 8: If current trends continue, women can expect to live to 55.6 years in good health by 2040 and spend 23 years, or 29.3% of their lives in poor health while men can expect to live to 56.5 years in good health and live 19 years (25.2%) in poor health (fig x).
Note: A new way of measuring healthy life expectancy means these statistics are not directly comparable to those reported in the State of Health in the City: Liverpool 2040 report.
